We have all seen the images. We might have even heard the chants and smelled the smoke. Black Lives Matter, Mouvement des gilets jaunes, and the trucker convoy sit-in in Canada are but a few of the recent examples. So what makes some of us decide to leave the comfort of a warm home or cafe, only to get on the streets and screams our lungs raw?
To over simplify, let us assume that people protest in large groups when frustrations about a certain issue has reached a boiling point. Other avenues of recourse have been tried and found wanting. Leaving the workplace to make sure grievances are heard and addressed usually mean that a certain red line (at least from the protestors perspective) has been crossed, and there is no backing down.
Yet here we are. The world is still turning, and the bankers are still getting into their limos. What gives? What happened to no backing down?
In general, protests are either put down (through violence or the threat of violence) or positions from those in power get softened. Conditions that the protestors demand get partially or fully met. However, things do not always end that way. At times, the groundswell of anger and dissatisfaction are so strong, that no amount of violence available to the state (or offering of concessions) is able to get that angry genie back in the bottle. It is at this point in time that a revolution (instead of evolution) occurs, and we go to a new system via some sort of a reset.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I won’t be raising eyebrows when I say that revolutions are painful events. Vast swaths of human and financial capital gets destroyed in these total wars, where everything is seen as a worthy sacrifice for the ultimate goal. And what is this goal?
A few somewhat recent examples that have shaped modern history:
American revolution (1775-1783), seeing the greatest empire of the time defeated, giving birth to the United States that we know of today.
The Russian Revolution of 1917, seeing the Tsar give way to the Soviet Union
The Chinese Communist Revolution concluding in 1949, ushering communist rule in China by the CCP. Chiang Kai Shek’s Kuomintang nationalist party lost the civil war and retreated to the island of Taiwan, where a separate political entity still exists to this day
The breakup of the Soviet Union (1988-1991), allowing for a number of eastern european and central asians nations to gain independence.
This is but a short list of of events that pepper our history, and shape the reality we currently live in. Nearly all of these were balanced on a knife’s edge, with eventual victory far from a certainty. If any of these events had turned out differently, we’d be faced with a very different landscape today. Just imagine: A democratic China (think Tiananmen student protests). A Russian Tsar still sitting proud in Moscow? How about an America with a Union Jack on her flag?! Un-f******-believable. Get outta here.
That these alternate realities are so difficult to imagine simply points to one fact: the immense influence these positions of power hold. It has the power to change the world. The keys to the gates of our civilisations (and the energy/wealth they offer) are always up for grabs through these revolutions, and possession of these keys are called into question whenever dormant human spirits are roused.
And when are they roused? I would say when hope of a system’s or society’s natural evolution and change is impeded, with no recourse for a finer balance to be struck.
Think of a river flowing to a sea. It usually follows a natural course based on the geography of an area. Humans often decide to manipulate a waterway’s natural flow by constructing dams or levees. By doing so, we are able to leverage the flow of the water to our advantage.
Humans have been using hydro energy, irrigating farms and building cities in floodplains for millennia. These systems are carefully put in place and work very well, until sometimes they don’t. Then, disaster strikes and a new ‘system’ where the priority becomes organising a clean up crew fast.
Record-Breaking Flooding In China Has Left Over One Million People Displaced
Germany floods: How a country was taken by surprise
This new system is usually one where the energy and sophistication within it is significantly lower until it can build itself back up again. This is understandable given that the dam is no longer there. Large numbers of housing properties and productive assets such as farms and factories have also been washed away. However, power hierarchies in the area are now reset. The owner of the dam is now not only asset poor, he better be running for his life.
In many ways, human progress in society runs similarly to how water does. It follows the path of least resistance, always seeking to find a more stable equilibrium. And just as how the managers of our rivers and infrastructure try to shape the flow of water for benefit, the influential key holders of our society try to do the same. Don’t believe me?
Democracy is taught in mandatory public schools in the west to be a force of good. It is probably not seen in remotely the same light in schools in the People’s Republic of China. How can there be two different truths that contradict? Easy. We are trying to shape the flows of human progress.
Twitter is one of the most used social media platforms globally, yet whether free speech should be allowed on the platform is currently being debated. If speech is not free, an authority has to be an arbiter of what speech is allowed. Why would such an arbiter be needed? Easy. We are trying to shape the flows of human progress.
Nearly every country today has its own fiat currency, created and managed by that country’s financial authority. We are all obliged to transact with each other in that currency and abide by the rules it comes with even though thousands of alternatives exist. Why not allow people to use what they believe to serve their needs best? Why not allow the beautiful people of Venezuela to use US dollars or Bitcoin instead of suffering through hyperinflation? Easy. We are trying to shape the flows of human progress.
Are these actions used to shape and influence human progress necessarily bad? Who knows? I am simply stating that when certain actions do not go according to plan, or when people feel unjustly treated by a system’s allocation and exploitation of resources, grievances build. Those in charge then get the chance to negotiate and evolve, or ignore and suppress. The issue is that unless a dam allows for water to be released (negotiating), the weight of the water trying to flow through will always overcome the man made structures trying to hold it back.
The grievances that are currently building globally is manifold:
Inflation is surging, eating into the budgets of everyone, especially the poor.
Shortages are building across the board, with food shortages just one of many products facing a supply crunch
The coming food catastrophe (The Economist)
Energy is in short supply, causing a spiral of unsavoury consequences ranging from households facing cold dark winters to chemical and agricultural products being unavailable due to hydrocarbon feedstock shortages.
Mention housing affordability to a millennial and he/she/they will almost certainly start choking on their avocado smash sandwich. Jeff can take holidays in space now, but owning a home to live in is currently an out of this world luxury.
Many of these issues are systemic in nature. Some argue that the debt based fiat system we have relied on is arriving at its’ endgame. I would argue we are witnessing a slow motion mark-to-market of its valuation. Does it buy you what you thought it would? Empty Walmart shelves might hurt our faith in the colourful coupons in our wallets.
We have been witnessing a jaw dropping growth in debt in the last decades, fuelled by many government’s need to stay popular. “Vote for me today! Don’t worry, we will foot the bill tomorrow!” could be a paraphrased summary of nearly every campaign in recent memory. Maybe tomorrow never comes. Or maybe it was yesterday. See above for signs that the pied piper wants to be paid. He has after-all lent us Trillions: Global government debt set to soar to record $71 trillion this year
When will the music stop? Historically it has often been when financial systems die. When a dollar no longer buys you what you expected in food, energy or shelter, people look for alternatives. This is when alarm bells start ringing. The financial order is the main framework with which order is kept through the distribution of resources. What happens when this starts to malfunction? The holders of the keys we mentioned earlier pull at levers ever more frantically. Once confidence in the system is lost however, no amount of pulling will suffice.
People won’t accept freezing or going hungry for long. Germans love their showers just as much as the rest of us.
Once confidence is lost, the rubicon would have been crossed. Will the system evolve due to the need for change and reform ? Hopefully. Although time is running short.