Game Theory of Thrones
We all have watched or at least heard of the TV series “Game of Thrones”, and sat enthralled as Kings, Queens and their subjects battled it out for ultimate power, and the right to the Iron Throne.
I haven’t watched all of it myself, so please forgive me if I mix my references up. What I have done is listened to the gasps of disbelief from fans over the years as betrayals, murders and scandalous affairs between these warring parties were slowly revealed. Episode by addictive episode of course.
So what made the novels a best seller in 2011, and how did this story and subsequent series capture the imagination of a whole generation?
“Game of Thrones has won numerous awards throughout its run, including 59 Emmy Awards, eight Screen Actors Guild Awards and a Peabody Award. It holds the record for total Emmy Award wins for a scripted television series (surpassing the record of 37 wins held by Frasier since 2004) and for most Emmy nominations for a drama series, with 161. In 2019, the show's final season established a new record for most Emmy nominations received in a year with 32, breaking the 25-year-long record of 26 nominations established by NYPD Blue in 1994.” - Wikipedia
I am not an expert in critiquing art, but for the Game of Thrones to have become such a hit, something must have resonated to have captured the collective imagination in such a way. Perhaps amidst the beautiful cinematography, the white walkers and flying dragons, we see a set of make-believe characters behaving in very believable ways, given the circumstances they were presented with.
“Everything you can imagine is real” - Pablo Picasso
Something that was unique about this series though: it was tricky to ascertain who was “good” or “bad” per se. Every character found themselves a little more hated or a little more loved as the seasons wore on. Jon Snow, the Lannisters and Daenerys et al were driven by personal incentives that were convoluted, messy and most of all understandable.
As we turn off the TV screens and hit the real world of our smartphone screens, we see a whole other Game of Thrones playing out in real time. Instead of Winterfell and King’s Landing though, we see in 4K HD how Mariupol, Popasna and the Donbass in Eastern Ukraine are serving as battlefields where Kingdoms of our own are clashing, and similarly struggling for supremacy.
Hit the pause for a moment.
Notice the calls for labelling of parties as “bad” or “good” while these struggles play out. Getting a nation or tribe united and behind a mission rarely leaves space for nuance and grey areas. Narratives get pushed to show only black and white, with anything in-between seen as blasphemy and treated as treason. As difficult as it is to accept, reality is probably closer to what played out over 73 episodes in Westeros than what is being portrayed by Russia Today and The New York Times.
Probably, the only way to wade through the swamp of narratives in search of the truth would be to listen to all sides (gasp!), accepting that the truth lies somewhere in-between.
Before I close this piece out, I would ask that we perhaps consider this struggle as one that might not only be material in nature. What if fertile soils and deep ports in the black sea are not the primary objectives being fought for? A battle for the keys of our current financial system and the immense advantages they hold under lock might be the real treasure being fought over. The indebted deficit producing developed world on one side (with said keys), going up against the surplus producing developing group of nations on the other.
I wrote in a previous article that individuals rise up in protest when frustrations about a certain issue has reached a boiling point, and other avenues of recourse have been tried and found wanting (article here). With that in mind, we would do well to ask ourselves how long nations of the world would be willing to export their finite and precious resources for pieces of debt-paper. Which I might add are being created in ever increasing amounts.
Nearly all nations imposing ‘sanctions’ in the image above depend on the grey-ed out nations (and Russia) to provide for their food, energy and minerals. In return they promise payment in fiat currencies issued by these same western oriented central banks. These central banks are managing their finances in a consistent manner that might be the reason for recent unrest:
Sensing a pattern here? It seems to me that the group doing the exporting have decided to go on strike, saying that the status quo just wont do. Mountains of paper for precious goods just won’t do. This rag tag group of ‘developing’ countries are starting to say ‘no’:
Russia's Gazprom cuts off natural-gas supply to the Netherlands after the Dutch refused to pay in rubles. Denmark could be next. (Remember that payment is usually done in US Dollars or Euros, allowing extreme power and influence to accrue to these issuing institutions)
Saudi, UAE leaders ignore Biden when he calls to talk gas prices: report
When asked about joining in on the sanctioning the world’s top producer of commodities, External Affairs Minister of India Dr Jaishankar: “I am 1/5 of the world's population and the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. I'm entitled to have my own interests.”
We noticing the simmering of discontent yet?
Jumping back to Westeros for a moment and oversimplifying things for readers. Let us assume that Eddard Stark kinda symbolised what was commonly accepted as ‘good’ or ‘just’ or at least ‘decent’ in season 1. He played the role of someone that everyone could get behind. The powers that be gave him the axe, threw away all pretence of ‘doing the right thing’ and we are thrown onto a roller coaster ride that is the Game of Thrones.
What if the global rules based order (read: western financial system) was Stark? Ever since 1945, most of the world has been trading, investing and saving in this system. Especially since the break up of the USSR, capital has been flowing freely through this supposedly neutral network of nations and institutions. That all came crashing down at the end of February this year.
White House and EU nations announce expulsion of 'selected Russian banks' from SWIFT
Russia stored large amounts of money with many countries. Hundreds of billions of it are now frozen.
$350 billion of Russian foreign reserves could pay for Ukrainian reparations
Say what you will about Russian actions in Ukraine. By blocking a nation from SWIFT and freezing her reserves unilaterally (see image above with countries in Grey), you are announcing loud and clear that this system is now no longer neutral. Stark has been well and truly taken out.
Without a neutral system to settle trade, we have only two broad futures facing the global economy:
Breakdown in trade since there are no neutral settlement mechanisms
A new neutral ‘money’ or store of value is agreed upon, and trade continues.
What happens next? I guess we have another 7 or so seasons to find out.
#Bitcoin. #Gold.